Bitcoin\u2019s recovery to its all-time high may be threatened by rising recession fears, which could ease if the United States and China begin tariff negotiations this month, research analysts told Cointelegraph.<\/p>\n
Appetite for global risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) may take another hit, with analysts from Apollo Global Management predicting a recession by the summer.<\/p>\n \u201cApollo predicting Summer Recession: Sharpest decline in earnings outlook since 2020,\u201d cross-asset analyst Samantha LaDuc wrote in an April 26 X post<\/a>.<\/p>\n The progress on the tariff negotiations may be the most significant factor impacting a potential recession and Bitcoin\u2019s price trajectory, according to <\/strong><\/em>Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.<\/p>\n Source: <\/em>Samantha LaDuc<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n \u201cMay is seen as pivotal as Chinese shipments reach the US\u2019s shores, and exemptions on some tariff categories such as auto parts and sub-USD-800 shipments from China\/ Hong Kong expire,\u201d Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding that a lack of negotiations in May could lead to an economic recession and \u201cdouble-digit losses\u201d for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n However, this is the least likely scenario, since neither China nor the US \u201c has an economic interest in the interruption of bilateral trade,\u201d Barthere said, adding:<\/p>\n \u201cGiven this, the main tariff scenario is for the US reaching deals or at least \u2018agreements in principle\u2019 with its main trade partners, probably settling around the 10% reciprocal tariff \u2018floor\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n If that scenario plays out and trade tensions ease in May, Bitcoin is likely to revisit its all-time high, Barthere said. <\/p>\n The US has \u201cproactively reached out to China through multiple channels,\u201d for signaling its openness for tariff negotiations, Reuters reported<\/a> on May 1, citing unnamed sources who spoke to state-affiliated Chinese media platform Yuyuan Tantian.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization \u2014 Adam Back<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n While most analysts hope to see trade negotiations in May alleviate economic concerns, Bitcoin may see more upside even in the face of a potential recession.<\/p>\n \u201cInitially, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may experience volatility, dropping alongside risk assets like stocks due to investor sell-offs,\u201d Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, told Cointelegraph, adding:<\/p>\n \u201cHistorical data, such as Bitcoin\u2019s recovery post-2020 recession, suggests it could rebound, especially if seen as a hedge against inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIn stagflation (high inflation and slow growth), Bitcoin, often compared to gold, may perform well, attracting investors seeking value preservation. Yet, its increased correlation with the stock market, particularly tech stocks, introduces uncertainty,\u201d said Lian, adding that crypto investors should continue monitoring economic policy shifts to gauge market direction.<\/p>\n BTC\/USD, 1-week chart, 2020-2021. Source: Cointelegraph\/<\/em>TradingView<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n However, Bitcoin\u2019s increasing correlation with tech stocks adds uncertainty to that outlook. Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,050%, climbing from $6,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That rally came after the Federal Reserve launched<\/a> its $4 trillion asset purchase program in March 2020.<\/p>\nBitcoin may rally despite recession<\/h2>\n